Compared to what?
Every argument about risk is secretly an argument about the alternative.
'Nuclear is dangerous' compared to what? 'That's expensive' compared to what? Nothing is good or bad against zero — it's good or bad against the thing you'd do instead. Put the two next to each other and the argument usually settles itself.
Instead of
It's just too risky.
Try
Too risky compared to coal? Because that's the actual alternative, and the numbers aren't close.
Try it today
Next time you hear 'too expensive' or 'too risky', ask 'compared to what?'
The science
Kahneman's anchoring and the base-rate neglect literature (Thinking, Fast and Slow, 2011): judgements of risk are made relative to a reference point, so choose the reference.
Where you'd actually use it
Next lesson
- 🔉 Lower your voice, not your standardThe calm one is winning, whatever's being said.
- ⏸️ The two-second pauseThe gap before your answer is where your composure lives.
- ❓ A question beats an assertionThe strongest move in most arguments is a question with a real cost behind it.