Correlation isn't cause
Two things happening together is a clue, not a verdict.
Ice-cream sales and drownings both rise in summer. Phones and anxiety both rose in the 2010s. Before you accept 'X causes Y', ask: what else changed? Could Y cause X? Is there a third thing driving both? Saying this plainly, without a lecture, is one of the most useful moves you own.
Instead of
The evidence is CLEAR. Phones did this.
Try
They rose together, sure — but so did a dozen other things. What makes phones the cause rather than the passenger?
Try it today
Find one 'X causes Y' claim today and name a third thing that could explain both.
The science
Pearl's Book of Why (2018) and every introductory statistics course: confounders, reverse causation, and the third variable. Ice cream and drowning is the textbook example.
Where you'd actually use it
Next lesson
- 🔀 Break the false binary'Either you're with us or…' — no. There's a third door.
- 💥 Say why it mattersA reason tells them you're right. An impact tells them why they should care.
- 🛑 Stop after the pointThe sentence after your best sentence is where arguments go to die.